GCSE Maths (AQA)

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Probability Probability

Theoretical Probability

5:20 Theoretical Probability
Spec P3 P7
Previous The Probability Scale Next Probability & Systematic Listing
  • The theoretical probability of an event is determined by the number of outcomes that satisfy the event's criteria.
  • The probability of an event is equal to the number of successful outcomes over the total number of outcomes.
  • Examples where all outcomes do not have the same chance of occurring include rolling a loaded die or a particular football team winning a match.
  • To calculate the probability of an event, determine the number of possible outcomes and the number of successful outcomes, then use the formula: Probability = Number of successful outcomes / Total number of outcomes.
  • Example 1: The probability of choosing a tile with a vowel from a bag containing tiles for each letter of the alphabet is 5/26 or 19.23%.
  • Example 2: The probability of the released item from a broken vending machine being a can of cola is 6/12 or 50%.

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